A slim majority of those who are registered to vote (51%) now say that Donald Trump should not “be allowed to take office again in the future” given “what we know about ongoing investigations into him.”
Only 35% of voters believe Trump should be re-elected. Others (14%) are uncertain.
The survey of 1,566 American adults has been conducted from Sept. 23 to 27, just days after Letitia James, the attorney general of New York state, filed a broad lawsuit accusing former President Donald Trump and three of his children of falsely inflating the value of their assets by billions of dollars “to obtain favorable financial terms” — a number of recent legal setbacks for the man who also may be charged with interfering with an election in Georgia and stealing highly sensitive documents.
As a result, it might illustrate the overall impact of Trump’s escalating legal problems. In prior Yahoo News/YouGov polls, questions posed in various situations, such as “if he were found guilty of mishandling highly secret documents” or “if he were found guilty of hindering the [Justice Department’s] investigation,” asked whether Trump should be let to serve again.
But this was the first election where voters were asked to decide whether a number of the current state and federal investigations, taken altogether, had already uncovered enough misconduct to exclude Trump from serving another term in office (regardless of whether he is ever proven guilty).
That’s not exactly the best place to start a reelection campaign, which Trump is reportedly planning to run for later this year or early next.
Nevertheless, not all of the latest Yahoo News/YouGov poll findings were negative for the past leader. In an imagined head-to-head rematch in 2024, President Biden led Trump by 6 points (48% to 42%) – the Democrat’s greatest leader in months. Biden’s lead has narrowed to two percentage points (47% to 45%) in the most recent poll.
Although Trump is still quite competitive in a general election setting, when partisanship is most important, a recent poll also reveals that his support among Republican voters could be waning slightly.
Following the Aug. 8 FBI raid at Mar-a-Lago, the GOP appeared to rally around Trump; many registered voters who recognize as Republicans or Republican-leaning independents, preference the former president (54%) over “someone else” (33%) in a hypothetical 2024 primary match-up increased overnight (from 48%-39% previously).
Trump’s “Mar-a-Lago bump,” however, has since vanished. According to the most recent Yahoo News/YouGov poll, Republicans and Republican leaners’ support for 2024 has decreased by 7 points (to 47%) while favoring someone else has increased by 3 points (to 36%). Another 17% state that they are unsure.
In other words, less than half of all Republican voters support the former president for the position of party nominee in 2024. Trump performs just somewhat better when compared to Florida Governor Ron DeSantis, who is his most likely opponent for the nomination; he receives 47% to DeSantis’s 34%.
Regarding the legal case filed in New York state, it’s unlikely that it will alter the opinions of Trump all by itself. Only 27% of Americans claim to have heard “a lot” about it; 34% claim to have heard “some.” The remainder report having “somewhat” (20%) or “none” (19%) of it.
Perhaps, as a result, 44% of Americans believe that Trump “raised the value of his commercial assets by billions of dollars,” down from 49% three weeks prior, when it was claimed that he “brought highly confidential materials with him to Mar-a-Lago.” The partisan gap also explains a lot of things: Trump’s financial assets were exaggerated by billions of dollars, according to 83% of 2020 Biden backers and 72% of Democrats; only 10% of 2020 Trump voters, as well as 12% of Republicans, concur.
Americans disagree on whether the New York lawsuit is driven by a “political bias against Trump with his family” (39%), or by a “genuine intent to hold Trump and his family accountable” (41%).
Nevertheless, a majority of Republicans (39%), or more than 6 in 10, believe that Trump “should be prosecuted” if he “committed corporate fraud.” But only 44% of Americans believe that “given what we know about ongoing investigations,” he should be put on trial. 31% believe he shouldn’t be charged, while another 25% aren’t sure.
However, James and the prosecution still have time to present their case. 45% of Americans said they believed Trump had “done a serious crime” at some time during his life in an early April poll conducted by Yahoo News and YouGov. That percentage is now 50%. Meanwhile, from 30% to 27% fewer Americans now believe he never had committed a significant crime.
Whether Trump is ever found guilty is a different matter. Only 27% of Americans think the former president could ultimately “be found guilty of a crime” in light of what we now know. 36% of them do not.
credit: The Yahoo News survey was conducted by YouGov using a nationally representative sample of 1,566 U.S. adults interviewed online from Sept. 23 to Sept. 27, 2022. This sample was weighted according to gender, age, race, and education based on the American Community Survey, conducted by the U.S. Bureau of the Census, as well as the 2020 presidential vote (or nonvote) and voter registration status. Respondents were selected from YouGov’s opt-in panel to be representative of all U.S. adults. The margin of error is approximately 2.7%.